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Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
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Mid-Year Outlook 2024
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CIO Perspectives
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CIO Strategy Bulletin
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FX Insights
Mid-Year Outlook 2024
Renewed Growth, New Challenges: Building resilient portfolios
With rates higher for a little longer, geopolitical concerns, and volatile inflation data. How can investors build resilient portfolios in such a challenging time for markets?
In our Mid-Year Outlook 2024, Citi continues to advocate for a resilient balanced portfolio and sees opportunities and reasons to invest broadly across markets. Read more about our key observations.
CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of 21st Oct 2024
More Growth, Less Easing
S&P 500 and the Dow made new highs as the big banks kicked off the third quarter earnings season with better-than-expected results. Our APAC Investment Strategist, Calvin Ha, believes that more growth and less easing are expected with a recession nowhere in sight. Join us this week to examine the US economy in detail as the US elections loom closer.
CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Oct 21st, 2024 By Citi Wealth Insights
Prepare to Make Volatility an Asset
In the evening of the past two US presidential elections – featuring the same candidates of 2024 excluding Joe Biden – financial markets saw large moves and, at moments, false assumptions about final results. S&P 500 futures averaged a 5.9% price swing. US 10-year Treasury yields moved 27 basis points and the broad US dollar gained or lost about 2.5%.
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Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 22nd Aug 2024
CNYJPY – Same Trajectory Now, Divergence Later
The unwinding of the JPY carry trade has spread to other currencies such as the CNY which caused the CNYJPY pairing to go down in the same trajectory. However, due to monetary policy differences, the CNY and JPY might diverge over the medium term.
FX Perspectives | Sept 5th, 2024
Has the US dollar bottomed out?
The broad-based dollar index (DXY) have been in a downtrend since its peak in late September 2022. Much of its decline happened recently across a two-month period since mid-July. Our Head of FX Strategy, Jai Tiwari, explains the reasons for the sudden sharp drop and if the conditions are ripe for DXY to stabilize and possibly rebound from here.
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Global Strategy
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World Investment Navigator
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Middle East Strategy
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Citi Wealth Insights
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant | September 20, 2024
US Policy Uncertainty, Intact Expansion
In early August, we raised our US equity allocation after a double-digit decline in technology shares. Corporate profits have risen to record highs and we see further gains to come through 2025.
After a 50 basis point easing step from the Fed that marks the start of a cycle, markets embed nearly 200 basis points of additional Fed rate cuts over the coming year. This reflects an unusual circumstance of a softening labor market and rising GDP (this is an outcome close to our base case view coming into the year, please see our Wealth Outlook 2024).
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
World Investment Navigator – January 2024
- October 2023 price is gone, the opportunity remains.
- Markets still price in too high a probability of a March rate cut, in our view. Still, 150 bps of cuts expected in 12 months is not extreme.
- What has happened since OL24: Junk rally amid dovish Fed turn.
- How’s the broadening trade going?
- Health Care: the anti-obesity craze won’t stymie innovation.
- Yield curve is now very flat, and positively sloped between intermediate-to-long dated maturities.
- Intermediate IG still offer attractive “real” yields vs expected inflation with yields of about 5.15% for duration of about 4 years.
- USD: The recent squeeze up in DXY may partly be due to a rise in risk aversion related to the Middle East.
- Presidential Year Stock Market Returns.
- Market-cap vs Equal-weighted S&P 500 Over Time.
- China’s equity performance is uncorrelated with its GDP growth, while the property market has acted as a key source of wealth generation since 1997.
- Japan – Profitability, Investor Inflows, Currency Kicker.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ Sept 2024
Economic Diversification and the Reliance on Commodities
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “The Time Has Come” speech signaled the Fed’s readiness to act at the next FOMC meeting on September 18th. Given the signals from the Fed, we expect that the central banks of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies will follow suit by reducing their policy rates, potentially starting with a 25-basis point (bps) cut in September.
Citi Wealth Insights
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