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Market Analysis and Insights
Weekly market analysis and bulletin, Insights from the Office of Chief Investment officer on financial market and the latest on FX. Dive into the world of wealth with Citi UAE.
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Investment Strategy Bulletin
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FX Insights
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FX Perspectives
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Middle East Strategy
Investment Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Aug 15, 2025 By Citi Wealth Insights
Tariff tremors turn the market
Market volatility may be low, but factor volatility has increased due to mixed (and tariff-sensitive) economic data. By mid-week, small-caps had posted their strongest two-week outperformance relative to large-caps since late 2024. Dovish July economic data, political pressure on Fed policy, and short-covering has supported recent outperformance of rate-sensitive areas of the market like small-caps and homebuilders. We expect these lower quality, higher beta trades will experience two-way volatility as data releases – like the hot July PPI print – reveal more tariff effects.
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Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 21st August 2025
FX Focus: USD’s tactical rebound may lead to range-bound 2H25
Prior to the US July jobs report release on August 1, the dollar staged a tactical rebound in early July. But this tactical rebound may be ending, and USD’s next bearish phase may be commencing. However, we believe there are limits as to how much the USD could potentially fall over the medium term.
FX Perspectives | August 15th, 2025
FX Perspectives: US fiscal outlook remains uncertain
President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs on each country on August 1st as expected. Analysts estimate that the average global US tariff rate will be somewhere between 15-20%, up from 2.3% before Trump took office. Our head of FX strategy, Jaideep Tiwari, examines the latest tariffs and its implications for global currencies.
Click here to listen to the latest episode.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ May 2025
Middle East Strategy: What OPEC + output hikes mean for investors
After years of restraint, OPEC+ is hiking production. The group announced it will raise oil output by 411k barrels per day (b/d) in June, similar to its April increase. Markets had expected just 140k b/d. OPEC+ also says it will speed up the return to market of 2.2 million barrels per day that it had withdrawn in recent years, with the potential to pause or reverse the decision.
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Investment Lab
Investment Lab
The cost of cashing out
When markets become volatile, it can be tempting to try to ‘time the market’ or wait for a clear recovery. However, history shows that investing in this manner can lead to long-term underperformance compared to a strategy of remaining invested.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
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Citibank N.A. - UAE Branch is licensed by the Central Bank of the UAE as a branch of a foreign bank.
Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed with UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity of A) Financial Consulting, Introduction and Promotion under license number 20200000097 B) Trading Broker in International Markets under license number 20200000198 C) Portfolios Management under license number 20200000240 D) Custody under license number 602003.
Copyright © 2025 Citigroup Inc.