Investment Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Sept 12, 2025

Despite varying narratives to fit the data, the inflation prints this week do not change our expectation for a 25bps cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The inflation data this week fit either a dovish or hawkish narrative, depending on the camp of the interpreter. For the hawks, tariff-driven consumer inflation (CPI) further percolated as goods prices pressed higher, accelerating to a 3-month annualized rate of 2.8% relative to a 1.5% 12-month rate.

Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 12^th September, 2025

After having commenced its rate cut cycle a full 12 months soonerthan its own projections, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its overnight cash rate (OCR) by 250 basis points since August 2024. The OCR has fallen from a peak of 5.50% to the current 3.00% with both RBNZ projections and market pricing implying a further 50 bps in cuts to a 2.5% terminal rate before year-end.

FX Perspectives | September 04, 2025

After the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on August 1st, FX volatility fell sharply and went lower than the initial set of tariffs in April. But have markets priced in the risks? Our Head of FX Strategy, Jaideep Tiwari, analyzes the FX market post-tariffs and the risks for the USD.

Middle East Strategy ꟾ May 2025

After years of restraint, OPEC+ is hiking production. The group announced it will raise oil output by 411k barrels per day (b/d) in June, similar to its April increase. Markets had expected just 140k b/d. OPEC+ also says it will speed up the return to market of 2.2 million barrels per day that it had withdrawn in recent years, with the potential to pause or reverse the decision.

Investment Lab

When markets become volatile, it can be tempting to try to ‘time the market’ or wait for a clear recovery. However, history shows that investing in this manner can lead to long-term underperformance compared to a strategy of remaining invested.