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Investment Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Aug 15, 2025
Market volatility may be low, but factor volatility has increased due to mixed (and tariff-sensitive) economic data. By mid-week, small-caps had posted their strongest two-week outperformance relative to large-caps since late 2024.
Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 21st August 2025
Prior to the US July jobs report release on August 1, the dollar staged a tactical rebound in early July. But this tactical rebound may be ending, and USD’s next bearish phase may be commencing. However, we believe there are limits as to how much the USD could potentially fall over the medium term.
FX Perspectives | August 15th, 2025
President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs on each country on August 1st as expected. Analysts estimate that the average global US tariff rate will be somewhere between 15-20%, up from 2.3% before Trump took office.
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Middle East Strategy ꟾ May 2025
After years of restraint, OPEC+ is hiking production. The group announced it will raise oil output by 411k barrels per day (b/d) in June, similar to its April increase. Markets had expected just 140k b/d. OPEC+ also says it will speed up the return to market of 2.2 million barrels per day that it had withdrawn in recent years, with the potential to pause or reverse the decision.
Investment Lab
When markets become volatile, it can be tempting to try to ‘time the market’ or wait for a clear recovery. However, history shows that investing in this manner can lead to long-term underperformance compared to a strategy of remaining invested.
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